Governor Phil Murphy is on his way out, term-limited and leaving Trenton with low approval ratings and a state that feels increasingly uninhabitable. Property taxes remain the highest in the country, housing costs are suffocating families, and crime and infrastructure headaches dominate dinner-table conversations. As a result, New Jersey’s 2025 governor’s race has blossomed into one of the most consequential elections in America — make-or-break not just for the state, but for the political direction of the country heading into 2026.
Democrats should have had this race in the bag. Instead, their primary turned into a messy brawl. Big names piled in — Rep. Mikie Sherrill, Newark’s Ras Baraka, Jersey City’s Steve Fulop, former Senate President Steve Sweeney, and Rep. Josh Gottheimer. For the first time, candidates had to fight without the protection of the old “county line” ballot system. The fractured field left Sherrill limping away with only a plurality. She won the nomination, but hardly unified the party — not exactly a position of strength in a high-stakes year.
Republicans had a clearer path. Jack Ciattarelli, the businessman and former assemblyman who nearly toppled Murphy in 2021, has returned to finish the job. His victory over challengers Bill Spadea and Jon Bramnick was achieved decisively. Ciattarelli’s message is simple and sharp: cut taxes, stop the bleeding in Trenton, and restore law and order. In a state that has been emaciated by progressive experiments, it’s a message that clearly resonates.
Polls now show what Republicans have long suspected: New Jersey is in play. Early surveys leaned toward Sherrill, but recent numbers reveal a statistical tie. Both campaigns have picked running mates to broaden appeal — Sherrill tapped Rev. Dale Caldwell, a pastor and nonprofit executive, while Ciattarelli added lawman Jim Gannon, a former county sheriff. One looks like an establishment pick; the other signals a serious commitment to public safety.
The money flooding into the race is staggering. With no presidential contest this year, national PACs and advocacy groups have zeroed in on New Jersey, pouring more than $70 million into ads going into October. The result has been a predictable tidal wave of negativity. Democrats want to paint Ciattarelli as a proxy for Donald Trump, while Sherrill does her best to distance herself from Biden-era failures that New Jersey voters know all too well. Ciattarelli has Trump’s endorsement — energizing the base but also potentially harming his ability to win over independents in the suburbs.
Turnout will decide this race. Off-year elections typically favor whichever party can actually get its people to the polls. Democrats rely on the cities and inner suburbs. Republicans count on South Jersey, rural counties, and the exurbs. The battlegrounds are clear: Bergen, Middlesex, Monmouth, and Gloucester. Win those, and you win the state. Ciattarelli is polling well among older voters, blue-collar households, and South Jersey residents. Sherrill leans on wealthy suburbs and college-educated voters. It’s anyone’s game.
The campaign hasn’t been without its share of drama, either. In late September, Sherrill alleged that her military records had been improperly accessed and leaked. According to the leaked records, Sherrill did not walk at her U.S. Naval Academy commencement due to alleged involvement in a cheating scandal at the senior military academy. The media pounced (in both directions), though Ciattarelli denied involvement.
So why is this race make-or-break? For Democrats, a Sherrill win would mean an unprecedented third consecutive term in the governor’s office — cementing their grip on Trenton despite rising dissatisfaction with Murphy’s record. For Republicans, a Ciattarelli win would be the biggest statewide victory since Chris Christie, a sign that blue states are once again in play under Trump’s tenure. And for New Jerseyans themselves, this is a choice between more of the same crushing taxes and progressive social experiments, or a long-overdue course correction.
New Jersey can’t afford another four years of Murphy-style governance under a new name. This election is the moment to break the cycle. The Garden State’s future — and perhaps a signal for the nation’s political winds in 2026 — will be decided right here.
The choice could not be clearer. Double down on Democratic control that has driven families out of New Jersey, or back Jack Ciattarelli and reverse the perilous course we are on. America will be watching.
Sullivan Bean is a Contributor for Liberty Affair. He lives in New Jersey. Follow him on X: @th3BEAN99.
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